Today the NVCA and Dow Jones VentureSource released results from our 2012 Venture View predictions survey.  It's hard to believe that we have been doing this survey for six years -- but less hard to believe that this year's results reflect an ecosystem that is far less optimistic than last year.  For those who may recall, last year there was hope among VCs and CEOs alike that investments would increase, IPOs would improve, and the economy would begin to recover in 2011.  As we all know now, the optimists were disappointed in a number of ways as we will end 2011 with fewer IPOs than 2010 and signs an economic rebound remains elusive.  While VC investment in certain sectors will increase this year from 2010, namely consumer, business and healthcare IT, other industries such as life sciences and clean tech will see declines.  The optimists could have been correct had the year ended August 15th but the ensuing U.S. debt crisis and S&P downgrade knocked us off our path towards recovery and no one is sure when or for long we will be able to resume forward momentum.

That is, no doubt, why predictions from VCs and CEOs are far less sanguine than last year.  All one needs to do is read the individual predictions from the VCs to understand the consensus regarding industry contraction and a slower recovery.  Reality has hit home and the industry recognizes that we do not operate in a vacuum.  But despite it all, both VCs and CEOs anticipate some very positive growth - particularly with VC-backed companies where 86 percent of CEOs forecast an increase in headcount and 69 percent plan to increase their global activity in 2012.  And the better our companies do, the more healthy the VC industry is.  Challenges may be heavy but in venture capital and entrepreneurship, optimism has a way of always prevailing.

So perhaps the respondents to this year's survey are keeping expectations low for a reason.  Rather than being disappointed at this time next year, perhaps they are setting themselves up to be pleasantly surprised.  Given all the political and market uncertainty, the pendulum could swing either way in 2012.  Here at the NVCA we are prepared for "down" but enthusiastically rooting for "up".